An Experimental Analysis of the Impact of Tax Policy on Taxpayer Perceptions and Political Views

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

12-2025

Abstract

Using 72 Volunteer Income Tax Assistance (VITA) program participants, we collected pre- and post-test data to analyse the impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) tax code changes on taxpayer and vote perceptions. Pre-test data provided a baseline on participants’ political views and beliefs of the tax system, while post-test data provided insights as to how the changed tax code and its potential benefits might have changed perceptions. Further, we analysed framing effects by randomly assigning participants to a treatment that either referred to the TCJA by name or referred to it as the ‘Trump Tax Cuts’. Our data suggest that in the pre-test, subjects that identify as Republican have greater approval of the TCJA when it is framed as ‘Trump Tax Cuts’ as opposed to ‘TCJA’. The framing had no impact on Democrats either in the pre-test or post-test survey data. For Independents the framing had no impact in the pre-test survey but once the impact of the tax law was revealed in the post-test survey, the evidence suggests that Independents who see the ‘Trump Tax Cuts’ found the Act significantly less favourably than Independents who saw the TCJA frame. Lastly, the data also supports the idea that the more someone benefits from the TCJA the more positively they see the Act.

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