Document Type

Article

Publication Date

5-2018

Abstract

In this work, we derive and analyze a 2n + 1-dimensional deterministic differential equation modeling the transmission and treatment of HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus) disease. The model is extended to a stochastic differential equation by introducing noise in the transmission rate of the disease. A theoretical treatment strategy of regular HIV testing and immediate treatment with Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) is investigated in the presence and absence of noise. By defining R0, n, Rt, n and Rt,n as the deterministic basic reproduction number in the absence of ART treatments, deterministic basic reproduction number in the presence of ART treatments and stochastic reproduction number in the presence of ART treatment, respectively, we discuss the stability of the infection-free and endemic equilibrium in the presence and absence of treatments by first deriving the closed form expression for R0, n, Rt, n andRt,n. We show that there is enough treatment to avoid persistence of infection in the endemic equilibrium state if Rt, n = 1. We further show by studying the effect of noise in the transmission rate of the disease that transient epidemic invasion can still occur even if Rt, n<1. This happens due to the presence of noise (with high intensity) in the transmission rate, causing Rt,n > 1. A threshold criterion for epidemic invasion in the presence and absence of noise is derived. Numerical simulation is presented for validation.

Comments

This is the author’s manuscript. The version of record is available from the publisher at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2018.03.013.

Copyright © 2018 Elsevier. All rights reserved.

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